The Blue Jays hit the road after losing to the Red Sox in Toronto over the weekend and are looking for a fresh start in the Windy City. While Lucas Giolito has been solid for the White Sox, the Jazz could — and should — give him trouble tonight.
With the Toronto Blue Jays coming up on Canada Day weekend, it felt like a fireworks show gone bad. Their struggles against the American League East continued as they were defeated at home by the Boston Red Sox.
Tonight, the Jays will try to put that behind them and get those sparks going in the right direction when they head to the Windy City to begin a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox.
An interesting Game 1 of this series featured two veteran right-handers in the form of Chris Bassitt playing against Lucas Giolito. The Blue Jays are slight favorites for the showdown this Independence Day, but is there value in the home underdog?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you your best bets, as well as an same-game parley of MLB selections and predictions for the Blue Jays vs. White Sox.
Are you looking for today’s preview? Check out our Blue Jays vs. White Sox picks for Wednesday, July 5.
Blue Jays vs White Sox Odds
Blue Jays vs White Sox Predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays have been very dangerous against the American League East this season. They are 7-20 in divisional matchups this year. but hey they look great against everyone else! Toronto is 38–20 (.655 winning percentage) against teams outside their division. Tonight’s opponent, the Chicago White Sox, reside in the AL Central, the worst division in baseball.
Toronto handed the ball off to veteran Chris Bassitt. The right-hander’s first season in Toronto has certainly been a roller coaster as Bassett made a splash in his first start of the season, giving up nine runs on 10 hits before responding with a 2.40 ERA while holding opponents to a . in the next limited to a .173 batting average. 12 Start.
Then he fell into a slight decline: a three-game period where his ERA was a crappy 11.57 and opponents were hitting over .400 against him. But he bounced back and held the San Francisco Giants to just three hits over six innings, while setting a career high with 12 strikeouts.
Despite the ups and downs, Bassett has generally been a reliable pitcher and should be able to take advantage of a struggling White Sox team.
Pail hoses have been no good. The 37–49 record at Central may have been comparable to the Oakland A’s era. Speaking of which, the White Sox are coming off a series loss against those lower A’s and this season, especially against right-handers, he has looked horrendous. Chicago ranks 27th in OPS and 25th in WRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.
If Chicago needs a chance to win this game, it will need a strong performance from starter Lucas Giolito. It’s also been a fluctuating year for the White Sox right-hander, who has a 4.19 Expected ERA, but is coming off a solid June month, where he pitched to a 2.32 ERA and 11.3 walks per nine innings. Got the batsmen out. Turn.
However, Giolito’s match-up against the Blue Jays may be a bit more challenging. Despite Toronto’s notable struggles to hit with runners in scoring position, overall it has been more consistent than these teams when it comes to hitting against right-handers, ranking seventh in OPS and WRC+ is in fifth place.
Toronto also has an edge when it comes to bullpens. Blue Jays relievers rank sixth in xFIP and fifth in strikeouts per nine innings, while the White Sox are 17th and 12th in those categories.
While it isn’t an AL East rival, thanks to more consistent strikes against right-handers, there is some value in the Blue Jays in the -120 range.
My best bet: Blue Jays Moneyline (SIA AT -120)
Blue Jays vs. White Sox Same-Game Parlay
Blue Jays Moneyline (-115)
George Springer total bases over 1.5 (-105)
Lucas Giolito recorded under 17.5 outs (+120)
For the sake of this equal-game discussion, let’s move on to the theme of the Blue Jays finding some success in the Windy City. So, of course, we’ll start by throwing the Blue Jays on the moneyline on tickets.
Next, add George Springer to go up to a total of over 1.5 bases. This play is also in my MLB player props article today. Head over there for the full breakdown but basically, Springer has been a great leadoff guy since mid-May. He has a .321 batting average in his past 41 starts and is 3 for 9 against Giollio with a career high two doubles.
Speaking of Giolito, let’s kick off this SGP by taking the Under on his out-recorded prop. Giolito will need to complete six innings to redeem the over, and while he’s generally been a good inning catcher for the White Sox, he’s been giving up a lot of hits lately. Notably, he has allowed six or more in six of his last nine starts. This means more batting and more pitches.
Jace has the type of offense that could cause problems for Giolito. Starting 5 2/3 innings is too much on the table and adding the 17.5 fewer outs makes it a SPG +500 payout.
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Blue Jays vs. White Sox Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis
The Blue Jays open this American League matchup as roughly -120 road favorites, and that’s roughly where the line remains as of Tuesday afternoon. I like it up to Toronto-125 at this location.
When it comes to the total, he comes to an even 9 on the board and has been reduced to 8.5. If you still get a 9 in there, I’ll lean slightly towards the under.
Bassett has proved generally dominant this season, limiting opponents to a .225 batting average, and as mentioned, the White Sox have struggled to find consistency against right-handers. Meanwhile, Giolito is clearly in a groove, allowing only eight earned runs in five starts last month, and the Blue Jays are having problems with runners in scoring position.
So, that being said, I don’t hate going under 4.5 in the first five innings.
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propensity to know
The Blue Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 games against American League Central opponents. Find More MLB Betting Trends For Blue Jays vs White Sox
Blue Jays vs White Sox game info
| Place: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| date: | Tuesday, 4 July 2023 |
| 1st pitch: | 8:10 PM ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCS-Chicago |
starting pitcher
Chris Bassitt (8-5, 4.06 ERA): Barring a few bad setbacks, the Blue Jays have to be happy with their investment in Bassett. The right-hander has 11 starts in at least six innings and allows fewer than two earned runs.
Lucas Giolito (6-5, 3.53 ERA): Giolito has been one of the bright spots for the White Sox this season and is glad to see the return of strikeouts. The right-hander has scored seven or more Ks in four of his last five starts.