Olivia Chow’s lead in Toronto mayoral race narrows, according to poll

Olivia Chow’s lead in Monday’s mayoral election has narrowed significantly, according to a new Forum Research poll for the Toronto Star, after an endorsement by former Mayor John Tory gave her an edge over rival Ana Bailao.

Friday’s poll of 1,037 Torontonians found Chow, a former NDP MP, supported by 29 per cent of voters, down three points from last week, while Bailao’s support rose seven points to 20 per cent.

That would put Ballao, a former Tory-backed city councilor last Wednesday, firmly in second place, followed by former police chief Mark Saunders at 15 per cent, Anthony Fury, a former Toronto Sun columnist, at 11 per cent, the county. Josh Metallo at eight percent, former Liberal MPP Mitzi Hunter at five percent, and Coun. Brad Bradford at three percent.

Twelve percent said they didn’t know their choice for mayor. Interactive voice response surveys have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points 19 times out of 20.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said, “While Bielao’s lead will be too little, too late, it is the largest one-week lead for any candidate in the campaign and has clearly solidified Bielao’s position in second place.” Is done.”

“One has to wonder what would have happened if the support for Bailao had been higher a week earlier in the campaign.”

They said the result marks the third consecutive weekly decline of three percentage points for Chow, who has consistently led polls since the start of the 12-week election.

Polls have also said that if the Tories were to jump into the race, Torontonians would re-elect him, who resigned in February after the Star revealed his inappropriate relationship with a woman, which began when She was his junior subordinate.

Last Wednesday, Bielao’s campaign released a video in which the Tory, who previously vowed to remain neutral in the election, urged people to support his former housing attorney, whom he described as a “fighter”, “negotiator” and Said “leader”.

The Forum poll shows the surprise endorsement had a greater impact on voters than for Premier Doug Ford’s support for fellow conservative Saunders, whose support remained unchanged in the latest poll.

A Contact Strategies Survey The election, held from Friday to Saturday, gave Bailao a five-point lead over the previous week, but Chow is still far ahead with 31 percent of voters’ support compared to Bailao’s 17 percent.

That poll of 1,086 Torontonians had Saunders at 16 per cent, Furey 11 per cent, Metallo 10 per cent, Hunter six per cent, Bradford four per cent and another candidate five per cent. Nine percent were undecided.

The margin of error for the interactive voice recording survey is plus or minus 2.97 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

A third recent survey, of 1,481 Torontonians by MainStreet Research In the poll held on Thursday, Bailao’s support among fixed voters rose to 22 percent, while Chow had 30 percent.

MainStreet gave Fury 13 percent, followed by Saunders at 12 percent, Metallo at nine percent, Hunter at five percent and Bradford at two percent of voters determined with policy analyst Chloe Brown.

The margin of error in that automated telephone survey is plus or minus 2.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Major candidates were busy preparing their platforms on Saturday, while campaign officials prepared for Monday their crucial “get out the vote” effort to make sure as many of their supporters could reach the ballot box.

Nearly 130,000 Torontonians have already marked their ballots in advance voting.

Voting will close at 8 pm on Monday, with results expected a little later.

David Ryder is the Star’s city hall bureau chief and a reporter covering city hall and municipal politics. Follow him on Twitter: @dmrider

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